The elections are behind us, and with the political uncertainty out of the way, we can now look ahead with confidence.
On a national level, existing home sales dropped to a 14-year low in September, even with mortgage rates hitting a two-year low during that time, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
With that uncertainty gone, buyers will likely feel more secure in making this major decision.
Historically, home prices have shown a bullish trend!
Looking at the past five elections (2004–2020), a slowdown in home sales occurred in the four months leading up to just two of those elections—2004 and 2016.
Similarly, slowing price growth was seen before only two elections: 2004 and 2008.
But there’s more to the story—post-election, home sales and prices typically see a boost.
Since 2004, home sales and prices have increased annually in the four months following each election, except in 2008, when the housing market was hit hard by the Great Recession.
Moreover, these post-election gains have generally outpaced the slowdown seen right before the election, with some exceptions (like 2012, where the improvement was modest). In contrast, years like 2016 and 2020 saw much sharper rebounds.
Key Insight => On average, home sales have increased by 7% annually in the four months following the last five presidential elections, and prices have risen by an average of 5%.
While mortgage rates and the overall economy are still the main drivers of homebuyer behaviour, the data points to a post-election bump in sales and price growth. The evidence suggests a positive outlook moving forward.
Here is a recent video we hosted on “Ask Us Anything About U.S. Real Estate Investing.”
In light of the election this week, we wanted to share some key insights with you. We’ll be back with our regular Global Property Investor update next week.
